Over the last decade, Texas has recorded more than 34,000 crashes during winter road conditions, including periods when roads were icy, snowy, or slushy. Those years include the historic February 2021 winter storm, referred to as The Great Texas Freeze, which brought nearly a week of sustained freezing temperatures from February 11 to 21. The storm overwhelmed the state’s power grid, left millions without heat or electricity, and turned highways and neighborhood streets alike into sheets of ice. For many Texans, it was their first experience driving, or trying not to, in truly dangerous winter conditions.
The psychological impact of that week still lingers. When another major winter storm swept across Texas and much of the entire United States in early 2026, many residents feared a repeat of the 2021 disaster. While the power grid largely held and the disruption was far more limited this time, the roads once again became a major source of risk. Crashes, pileups, and vehicles sliding off highways were reported across the state as freezing rain and overnight lows created dangerous driving conditions. This reinforces the need to better understand when and where crash risk is most elevated during these events.
For this study, in partnership with 1Point21 Interactive, FVF Law analyzed Texas Department of Transportation (TxDOT) crash data from 2016 to 2025 to examine patterns in crashes occurring under winter road conditions, with a focus on icy road conditions. The analysis focuses on how crash frequency varies by hour of day and county, with the goal of identifying time periods and regions associated with higher concentrations of winter-weather-related crashes.
Read on to uncover what we found.
Key Takeaways:
- Icy roads are the most dangerous winter road condition in Texas, accounting for 77% of all winter road crashes over the last decade.
- The single day with the most crashes under icy road conditions across the decade was February 14, 2021 (Valentine’s Day), accounting for 5% of all icy road crashes between 2016 and 2025.
- Crashes on icy roads peak in the early morning hours between 7 a.m. and 8 a.m., with a yearly average of 278 crashes.
- The safest window to drive on icy roads is from 11 a.m. through about 4 p.m., when hourly crash counts remain near their daily low of 97 to 100 crashes per hour.
- Nolan County has the highest per-vehicle risk for icy road crashes, with 17.5 annual crashes per 10,000 registered vehicles — more than three times higher than the next highest counties, Lubbock and Potter.
- Urban counties like Harris, Dallas, Bexar, and Tarrant show lower per-vehicle risk, with fewer than 1.3 annual crashes per 10,000 vehicles, despite higher overall traffic volume.
Icy Road Crashes Peaked in 2021
Seventy-seven percent of all winter road crashes occur on icy roads. This is both because ice presents the greatest risk, reducing traction for vehicles, and often lasts longer than snowy and slushy conditions, as it takes longer to melt and remove. As a result, we began by examining how often icy road conditions were cited in Texas crashes each year. The chart below tracks annual crash counts involving icy roads from 2016 to 2025.
The data rises and falls based on when major freeze events occur. Prior to 2021, total icy road crashes varied from year to year. The lowest total within this time period was recorded in 2016 with 404 crashes, and a peak was experienced in 2018 with 3,296 crashes. These swings reflect short-lived cold spells that temporarily increased risk.
That pattern changed in 2021, when Texas experienced one of its most severe winter storms. Icy road crashes increased dramatically to 7,287, more than doubling any previous year in the dataset. The winter storm brought sustained freezing temperatures for nearly a week, however, because of essential needs and an underestimation of the danger, many Texans continued to drive during this period. TxDOT now has several strategies to prepare for similar events. Thousands of miles of roads may be pretreated with brine before a storm, and personnel are deployed with plows and sanders during peak conditions. State officials promote a “stay home if possible” message, and the TxDOT has multiple social media accounts that have grown large followings to keep drivers informed about precautions and real-time updates.
The number of icy road crashes has decreased since the winter storm. However, the number of crashes has remained higher than most years prior to the freeze. Between 2022 and 2025, the number of icy road crashes ranged from 1,723 to 3,887. Even the lowest year is higher than some years prior to the freeze.
Texas’s Most Extreme Winter Crash Days
The following graph highlights the days over the last decade that saw the largest single-day crash totals.
Valentine’s Day 2021 recorded the most crashes on icy road conditions over the last decade, with 1,744 events. This single day accounts for 5% of all icy road crashes that occurred between 2016 and 2025. For comparison, the average share of icy road crashes for any single day during this period is just 0.11%.
Four additional days from that same year also appear in the top ten. Outside of 2021, these dates stood out: January 16, 2018 (ranked third); February 3, 2022 (ranked sixth); February 23, 2022 (ranked eighth); and December 31, 2017 (ranked tenth).
How Severe Are Icy Road Crashes?
Over the last decade, over 10,000 injuries of minor, serious, and fatal severities were experienced as a result of crashes occurring on icy road conditions in Texas. The chart below presents the share of crashes that resulted in injuries by road condition.
While icy road crashes account for the highest share of injury-related incidents at 11%, the gap between winter conditions is relatively small. Crashes in snowy and slushy conditions are less common overall, yet 10% and 8% of those crashes still result in injuries, respectively.
However, what makes icy road crashes so dangerous is the possibility of pileups. For example, in 2021, a pileup of 135 cars occurred in Fort Worth on I-35W because of black ice during the winter storm where dozens of individuals were injured and six people were killed.
The Safest Time to Drive on Icy Roads
Even with safety interventions, timing is crucial. The chart below reveals hourly crash patterns across Texas winter conditions to determine which hours are the safest to hit the road.
Snowy and slushy conditions show relatively flat or gently curved lines across the day, meaning crash levels stay fairly consistent from hour to hour. This pattern suggests that risk on these road conditions depends less on the time of day.
When we compare this pattern to icy conditions, we can see that ice has a period that is safer than others. A steep climb is visible in the early morning hours between 4 a.m. and 7 a.m., when roads may have refrozen overnight. Crashes peak between 7 a.m. and 8 a.m. with a yearly average of 278 crashes. A steady decline then follows through the late morning and afternoon, as sunshine often helps melt the ice into wetter or slushier conditions.
Though still at a higher volume, by 11 a.m. crashes on icy roads begin to follow a steadier pattern similar to snowy and slushy conditions. By this point, icy crashes have fallen by nearly 60% from their 7 a.m. peak. This suggests that late morning through the afternoon is the safest time to drive when icy conditions are present. From 11 a.m. through about 4 p.m., icy crash counts remain near their daily low, at roughly 97 to 100 crashes per hour.
Counties Experiencing The Most Icy Road Crashes
Here, we take a look at the rate of yearly crashes on icy roads per 10,000 resgitered vehicles in Texas counties. All counties listed below recorded a yearly average of more than 200 crashes on icy roads.
Nolan County stands out as a clear outlier with a rate of 17.50 icy-road crashes per 10,000 registered vehicles. This is more than three times higher than the next highest counties, Lubbock and Potter, which average roughly 5.71 and 5.44 crashes per 10,000 vehicles, respectively. Several other North and West Texas counties, including Taylor, Wichita, and Randall, also show elevated risk, as colder winter temperatures and frequent freeze events play a major role in shaping where icy crashes occur.
By contrast, many of Texas’s largest urban counties, such as Harris, Dallas, Bexar, and Tarrant County, appear lower on the list, with rates below 1.3 crashes per 10,000 vehicles, despite their higher traffic density. Raw crash totals may be high in major cities, but individual drivers there face a much lower relative risk of encountering icy-road crashes.
Staying Safe During Winter Road Conditions
No matter where you live in Texas, drivers can reduce risk by slowing down, leaving extra space between vehicles, and avoiding travel during peak freeze or refreeze periods. To help plan your routes, TxDOT provides DriveTexas.org, an interactive resource that offers real-time information on road conditions, traffic incidents, closures, and construction across the state. Drivers may also follow TxDOT on social media for timely alerts and updates.
Methodology
We analyzed TxDOT crash data between 2019 and 2025 that met the winter road conditions we were interested in. We used TxDOT vehicle registration county figures for the 2025 year to calculate county crash rates.
We analyzed TxDOT crash data from 2016 through 2025 for icy, snowy, and slushy road conditions. To calculate county-level crash rates, we used TxDOT vehicle registration figures for 2025 as the denominator.
Fair Use Statement
If you would like to share this safety study with fellow Texans, we encourage you to do so. We just ask that you please include a link back to this page so readers can reference the full methodology and findings.
